PASTIS: Bayesian extrasolar planet validation. I. General framework, models, and performance

A large fraction of the smallest transiting planet candidates discovered by the Kepler and CoRoT space missions cannot be confirmed by a dynamical measurement of the mass using currently available observing facilities. To establish their planetary nature, the concept of planet validation has been advanced. This technique compares the probability of the planetary hypothesis against that of all reasonably conceivable alternative false-positive (FP) hypotheses. The candidate is considered as validated if the posterior probability of the planetary hypothesis is sufficiently larger than the sum of the probabilities of all FP scenarios. In this paper, we present PASTIS, the Planet Analysis and Small Transit Investigation Software, a tool designed to perform a rigorous model comparison of the hypotheses involved in the problem of planet validation, and to fully exploit the information available in the candidate light curves. PASTIS self-consistently models the transit light curves and follow-up observations. Its object-oriented structure offers a large flexibility for defining the scenarios to be compared. The performance is explored using artificial transit light curves of planets and FPs with a realistic error distribution obtained from a Kepler light curve. We find that data support for the correct hypothesis is strong only when the signal is high enough (transit signal-to-noise ratio above 50 for the planet case) and remains inconclusive otherwise. PLATO shall provide transits with high enough signal-to-noise ratio, but to establish the true nature of the vast majority of Kepler and CoRoT transit candidates additional data or strong reliance on hypotheses priors is needed.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS; 23 pages, 11 figure

Oblique rings from migrating exomoons: A possible origin for long-period exoplanets with enlarged radii

Context. The extremely low density of several long-period exoplanets in mature systems is still unexplained -- with HIP 41378 f being archetypical of this category. It has been proposed that such planets could actually have normal densities but be surrounded by a ring observed approximately face on, mimicking the transit depth of a puffy planet. This would imply that the equator of the planet is nearly perpendicular to its orbit plane, which is at odds with the formation process of gas giants. Yet, in the context of the Solar System planets, it has been shown that after gigayears of evolution, the tidal migration of a moon can naturally lead to a very tilted planet with a ring. Aims. As exomoons are expected to be ubiquitous around giant exoplanets, this mechanism may be responsible for the anomalous radii of some observed exoplanets. In preparation for the future discoveries of the PLATO mission, we present a simple method for checking the plausibility of this mechanism for a given exoplanet. Methods. Analytical formulas give the probability density function of the relevant precession harmonics of the planet. For each harmonic, simple criteria set the moon mass and other properties required for the mechanism to operate. Results. We applied this methodology to HIP 41378 f, and we show that in order to reproduce the observed configuration, a hypothetical former moon should have had a moon-to-planet mass ratio of a few times 1e-4 (i.e. roughly the mass of our Moon) and have migrated over a distance of a few planet's radii on a gigayear timescale. These orders of magnitude match the properties of moons expected to exist around gaseous exoplanets. Conclusions. We conclude that the migration of a former moon is a viable formation pathway for the proposed ring and tilt of HIP 41378 f. This example strengthens the ring hypothesis and motivates its application to other targets.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

SOPHIE velocimetry of Kepler transit candidates XVI. Tomographic measurement of the low obliquity of KOI-12b, a warm Jupiter transiting a fast rotator

We present the detection and characterization of the transiting warm Jupiter KOI-12b, first identified with Kepler with an orbital period of 17.86 days. We combine the analysis of Kepler photometry with Doppler spectroscopy and line-profile tomography of time-series spectra obtained with the SOPHIE spectrograph to establish its planetary nature and derive its properties. To derive reliable estimates for the uncertainties on the tomographic model parameters, we devised an empirical method to calculate statistically independent error bars on the time-series spectra. KOI-12b has a radius of 1.43$\pm$0.13$R_\mathrm{Jup}$ and a 3$\sigma$ upper mass limit of 10$M_\mathrm{Jup}$. It orbits a fast-rotating star ($v$sin$i_{\star}$ = 60.0$\pm$0.9 km s$^{-1}$) with mass and radius of 1.45$\pm$0.09 $M_\mathrm{Sun}$ and 1.63$\pm$0.15 $R_\mathrm{Sun}$, located at 426$\pm$40 pc from the Earth. Doppler tomography allowed a higher precision on the obliquity to be reached by comparison with the analysis of the Rossiter-McLaughlin radial velocity anomaly, and we found that KOI-12b lies on a prograde, slightly misaligned orbit with a low sky-projected obliquity $\lambda$ = 12.6$\stackrel{+3.0}{_{-2.9}}^\circ$. The properties of this planetary system, with a 11.4 magnitude host-star, make of KOI-12b a precious target for future atmospheric characterization.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figure

One of the closest exoplanet pairs to the 3:2 Mean Motion Resonance: K2-19b \& c

The K2 mission has recently begun to discover new and diverse planetary systems. In December 2014 Campaign 1 data from the mission was released, providing high-precision photometry for ~22000 objects over an 80 day timespan. We searched these data with the aim of detecting further important new objects. Our search through two separate pipelines led to the independent discovery of K2-19b \& c, a two-planet system of Neptune sized objects (4.2 and 7.2 $R_\oplus$), orbiting a K dwarf extremely close to the 3:2 mean motion resonance. The two planets each show transits, sometimes simultaneously due to their proximity to resonance and alignment of conjunctions. We obtain further ground based photometry of the larger planet with the NITES telescope, demonstrating the presence of large transit timing variations (TTVs), and use the observed TTVs to place mass constraints on the transiting objects under the hypothesis that the objects are near but not in resonance. We then statistically validate the planets through the \texttt{PASTIS} tool, independently of the TTV analysis.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, accepted to A&A, updated to match published versio

Precise masses for the transiting planetary system HD 106315 with HARPS

Context. The multi-planetary system HD 106315 was recently found in K2 data. The planets have periods of Pb ~ 9.55 and Pc ~ 21.06 days, and radii of rb = 2.44 ± 0.17 R⊕and rc = 4.35 ± 0.23 R⊕ . The brightness of the host star (V = 9.0 mag) makes it an excellent target for transmission spectroscopy. However, to interpret transmission spectra it is crucial to measure the planetary masses. Aims. We obtained high precision radial velocities for HD 106315 to determine the mass of the two transiting planets discovered with Kepler K2. Our successful observation strategy was carefully tailored to mitigate the effect of stellar variability. Methods. We modelled the new radial velocity data together with the K2 transit photometry and a new ground-based partial transit of HD 106315c to derive system parameters. Results. We estimate the mass of HD 106315b to be 12.6 ± 3.2 M⊕ and the density to be 4.7 ± 1.7 g cm-3, while for HD 106315c we estimate a mass of 15.2 ± 3.7 M⊕ and a density of 1.01 ± 0.29 g cm-3. Hence, despite planet c having a radius almost twice as large as planet b, their masses are consistent with one another. Conclusions. We conclude that HD 106315c has a thick hydrogen-helium gaseous envelope. A detailed investigation of HD 106315b using a planetary interior model constrains the core mass fraction to be 5–29%, and the water mass fraction to be 10–50%. An alternative, not considered by our model, is that HD 106315b is composed of a large rocky core with a thick H–He envelope. Transmission spectroscopy of these planets will give insight into their atmospheric compositions and also help constrain their core compositions.The IA/Porto team acknowledges support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) through national funds and by FEDER through COMPETE2020 by these grants UID/FIS/04434/2013 & POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007672, PTDC/FIS-AST/1526/2014 & POCI-01-0145-FEDER-016886 and PTDC/FISAST/7073/2014 & POCI-01-0145-FEDER-016880. S.C.C.B., E.D.M. V.Zh.A., N.C.S., P.F., and S.G.S. also acknowledge support from FCT through Investigador FCT contracts IF/01312/2014/CP1215/CT000, IF/00849/2015, IF/00650/2015/CP1273/CT0001, IF/00169/2012/CP0150/CT0002, IF/01037/ 2013/CP1191/CT0001 and IF/00028/2014/CP1215/CT0002 funded by FCT (Portugal) and POPH/FSE (EC). V.Zh.A. and J.P.F. also acknowledge support from the FCT in the form of the grants SFRH/BPD/70574/2010 and SFRH/BD/93848/2013, respectively. P.F. further acknowledges support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) through POPH/FSE (EC) by FEDER funding through the programme “Programa Operacional de Factores de Competitividade – COMPETE” and exploratory project of reference IF/01037/2013/CP1191/CT0001. J.P.F., S.H., and J.J.N. acknowledge support by the fellowships SFRH/BD/93848/2013, PD/BD/128119/2016, and PD/BD/52700/2014, funded by FCT (Portugal) and POPH/FSE (EC). The French group acknowledges financial support from the French Programme National de Planétologie (PNP, INSU). The Swiss group acknowledges financial support the National Centre for Competence in Research “PlanetS” supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). DJA is funded under STFC consolidated grant reference ST/P000495/1

KOBEsim: A Bayesian observing strategy algorithm for planet detection in radial velocity blind-search surveys

Context. Ground-based observing time is precious in the era of exoplanet follow-up and characterization, especially in high-precision radial velocity instruments. Blind-search radial velocity surveys thus require a dedicated observational strategy in order to optimize the observing time, which is particularly crucial for the detection of small rocky worlds at large orbital periods. Aims. We developed an algorithm with the purpose of improving the efficiency of radial velocity observations in the context of exoplanet searches, and we applied it to the K-dwarfs Orbited By habitable Exoplanets experiment. Our aim is to accelerate exoplanet confirmations or, alternatively, reject false signals as early as possible in order to save telescope time and increase the efficiency of both blind-search surveys and follow-up of transiting candidates. Methods. Once a minimum initial number of radial velocity datapoints is reached in such a way that a periodicity starts to emerge according to generalized Lomb-Scargle periodograms, that period is targeted with the proposed algorithm, named KOBEsim. The algorithm selects the next observing date that maximizes the Bayesian evidence for this periodicity in comparison with a model with no Keplerian orbits. Results. By means of simulated data, we proved that the algorithm accelerates the exoplanet detection, needing 29-33% fewer observations and a 41-47% smaller time span of the full dataset for low-mass planets (mp < 10 M⊕) in comparison with a conventional monotonic cadence strategy. For 20 M⊕ planets we found a 16% enhancement in the number of datapoints. We also tested KOBEsim with real data for a particular KOBE target and for the confirmed planet HD 102365 b. These two tests demonstrate that the strategy is capable of speeding up the detection by up to a factor of 2 (i.e., reducing both the time span and number of observations by half).14 página

New methods for radial-velocity measurements of double-lined binaries, and detection of a circumbinary planet orbiting TIC 172900988

Ongoing ground-based radial-velocity observations seeking to detect circumbinary planets focus on single-lined binaries even though over 9 in every 10 binary systems in the solar neighbourhood are double lined. Double-lined binaries are on average brighter, and should in principle yield more precise radial velocities. However, as the two stars orbit one another, they produce a time-varying blending of their weak spectral lines. This makes an accurate measure of radial velocities difficult, producing a typical scatter of $10{\!-\!}15~\rm m\, s^{-1}$. This extra noise prevents the detection of most orbiting circumbinary planets. We develop two new data-driven approaches to disentangle the two stellar components of a double-lined binary, and extract accurate and precise radial velocities. Both approaches use a Gaussian process regression, with the first one working in the spectral domain, whereas the second works on cross-correlated spectra. We apply our new methods to TIC 172900988, a proposed circumbinary system with a double-lined binary, and detect a circumbinary planet with an orbital period of $150~\rm d$, different than previously proposed. We also measure a significant residual scatter, which we speculate is caused by stellar activity. We show that our two data-driven methods outperform the traditionally used TODCOR and TODMOR, for that particular binary system

Masses, radii, and orbits of small Kepler planets : The transition from gaseous to rocky planets

We report on the masses, sizes, and orbits of the planets orbiting 22 Kepler stars. There are 49 planet candidates around these stars, including 42 detected through transits and 7 revealed by precise Doppler measurements of the host stars. Based on an analysis of the Kepler brightness measurements, along with high-resolution imaging and spectroscopy, Doppler spectroscopy, and (for 11 stars) asteroseismology, we establish low false-positive probabilities (FPPs) for all of the transiting planets (41 of 42 have an FPP under 1%), and we constrain their sizes and masses. Most of the transiting planets are smaller than three times the size of Earth. For 16 planets, the Doppler signal was securely detected, providing a direct measurement of the planet's mass. For the other 26 planets we provide either marginal mass measurements or upper limits to their masses and densities; in many cases we can rule out a rocky composition. We identify six planets with densities above 5 g cm-3, suggesting a mostly rocky interior for them. Indeed, the only planets that are compatible with a purely rocky composition are smaller than 2 R ⊕. Larger planets evidently contain a larger fraction of low-density material (H, He, and H2O).Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

The SOPHIE search for northern extrasolar planets XIV. A temperate (Teq ~ 300 K) super-earth around the nearby star Gliese 411

Periodic radial velocity variations in the nearby M-dwarf star Gl 411 are reported, based on measurements with the SOPHIE spectrograph. Current data do not allow us to distinguish between a 12.95-day period and its one-day alias at 1.08 days, but favour the former slightly. The velocity variation has an amplitude of 1.6 m s−1, making this the lowest-amplitude signal detected with SOPHIE up to now. We have performed a detailed analysis of the significance of the signal and its origin, including extensive simulations with both uncorrelated and correlated noise, representing the signal induced by stellar activity. The signal is significantly detected, and the results from all tests point to its planetary origin. Additionally, the presence of an additional acceleration in the velocity time series is suggested by the current data. On the other hand, a previously reported signal with a period of 9.9 days, detected in HIRES velocities of this star, is not recovered in the SOPHIE data. An independent analysis of the HIRES dataset also fails to unveil the 9.9-day signal. If the 12.95-day period is the real one, the amplitude of the signal detected with SOPHIE implies the presence of a planet, called Gl 411 b, with a minimum mass of around three Earth masses, orbiting its star at a distance of 0.079 AU. The planet receives about 3.5 times the insolation received by Earth, which implies an equilibrium temperature between 256 and 350 K, and makes it too hot to be in the habitable zone. At a distance of only 2.5 pc, Gl 411 b, is the third closest low-mass planet detected to date. Its proximity to Earth will permit probing its atmosphere with a combination of high-contrast imaging and high-dispersion spectroscopy in the next decade

Project goals, target selection, and stellar characterization

The detection of habitable worlds is one of humanitya-s greatest endeavors. Thus far, astrobiological studies have shown that one of the most critical components for allowing life to develop is liquid water. Its chemical properties and its capacity to dissolve and, hence, transport other substances makes this constituent a key piece in this regard. As a consequence, looking for life as we know it is directly related to the search for liquid water. For a remote detection of life in distant planetary systems, this essentially means looking for planets in the so-called habitable zone. In this sense, K-dwarf stars are the perfect hosts to search for planets in this range of distances. Contrary to G-dwarfs, the habitable zone is closer, thus making planet detection easier using transit or radial velocity techniques. Contrary to M-dwarfs, stellar activity is on a much smaller scale, hence, it has a smaller impact in terms of both the detectability and the true habitability of the planet. Also, K-dwarfs are the quietest in terms of oscillations, and granulation noise. In spite of this, there is a dearth of planets in the habitable zone of K-dwarfs due to a lack of observing programs devoted to this parameter space. In response to a call for legacy programs of the Calar Alto observatory, we have initiated the first dedicated and systematic search for habitable planets around these stars: K-dwarfs Orbited By habitable Exoplanets (KOBE). This survey is monitoring the radial velocity of 50 carefully pre-selected K-dwarfs with the CARMENES instrument over five semesters, with an average of 90 data points per target. Based on planet occurrence rates convolved with our detectability limits, we expect to find 1.68 ± 0.25 planets per star in the KOBE sample. Furthermore, in half of the sample, we expect to find one of those planets within the habitable zone. Here, we describe the motivations, goals, and target selection for the project as well as the preliminary stellar characterization. © 2022 EDP Sciences. All rights reserved